老美经济开始衰退！基辛格曾发出预警：若美国倒下，谁也别想好过

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy appears strong on the surface, but underlying issues are significant, with real GDP growth projected to be only 1.5% for the year, down from 2.5% last year [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, indicating potential job losses and reduced consumer spending [2] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - Core inflation remains high at around 3.5%, far from the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with tariffs contributing to increased import prices [4] - Consumer confidence has plummeted, with the Michigan University index hitting a low not seen since the end of 2023 [4] Industrial Production and Economic Predictions - Industrial production fell by 0.4% month-over-month in July, with manufacturing PMI barely above the threshold, and order volumes declining sharply [4] - Predictions for GDP growth in Q4 are as low as 1.2%, indicating a potential economic slowdown [6] Emerging Markets Impact - Emerging markets are facing challenges as U.S. economic issues ripple globally, with trade growth in these markets dropping to just 1.7% [8] - Countries like Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico are experiencing reduced orders and production cuts due to their reliance on U.S. imports [8] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions are rising, particularly between the U.S. and China, with potential for increased conflict as the U.S. seeks to regain its global leadership [15] - Historical patterns suggest that economic crises often lead to heightened international tensions and conflicts [12] China's Economic Strategy - China is preparing for potential economic downturns, focusing on domestic demand and infrastructure investment to bolster its economy [18] - The Chinese government is emphasizing stability and cooperation in international relations, aiming to avoid isolation [19]