印度开始停止进口俄罗斯石油，中国转向稳盘，俄罗斯的腰包紧张了

Core Insights - The ongoing energy conflict in the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war has intensified, with major buyers India and China altering their purchasing strategies for Russian oil, impacting Russia's economic stability [1][3][20]. Group 1: India's Shift in Oil Purchases - India has reduced its imports of Russian oil from a peak of 2 million barrels per day to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to rising transportation costs and U.S. pressure [25]. - The U.S. imposed tariffs on a range of Indian exports, prompting India to adjust its oil procurement strategy, shifting towards sourcing from Africa and the U.S. despite higher costs [5][7]. - This adjustment reflects India's need to navigate geopolitical pressures while maintaining energy security [9][20]. Group 2: China's Changing Energy Strategy - China has begun to gradually reduce its maritime oil orders from Russia, opting for more stable pipeline transportation to mitigate risks associated with maritime shipping [11][13]. - The expansion of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline has increased the volume of oil transported via pipeline, indicating a strategic shift in China's energy sourcing [11][13]. - China's diversification of energy sources, including strengthening ties with Central Asian countries, enhances its resilience against geopolitical pressures [13][18]. Group 3: Implications for Russia and Global Oil Market - Russia faces significant economic challenges as both India and China adjust their purchasing strategies, leading to decreased oil export revenues and increased inflationary pressures domestically [16][20]. - The global oil market is shifting from a price-driven model to one that prioritizes risk management, with countries considering transportation risks and payment methods in their sourcing decisions [22][23]. - The rise of Middle Eastern and African oil suppliers in the Asian market further complicates Russia's position, as these competitors capitalize on Russia's weakened standing due to sanctions [16][18]. Group 4: Broader Geopolitical Context - The changes in energy trade dynamics reflect a broader reconfiguration of global power relations, where energy security is increasingly intertwined with political considerations [20][23]. - The shift towards local currency settlements in energy transactions indicates a move away from dollar dependency, altering the traditional energy trade landscape [15][25]. - The evolving energy landscape underscores the importance of strategic foresight in navigating geopolitical tensions and securing energy supplies [25].