黄金周报｜金价突破新高，美国政府或迎关门风险

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - As of last Friday (September 26), London spot gold closed at $3,758.78 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $74.13 per ounce, representing a 2.01% rise. The gold price reached a high of $3,791.08 and a low of $3,683.28 during the week [1] - The first interest rate cut has been implemented, and although there are differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials, the overall stance remains dovish, with expectations for further rate cuts [1][5] - Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the U.S. government faces a potential short-term shutdown, which may drive gold prices higher [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Dynamics - In the U.S., the Markit manufacturing PMI for September fell to 52, slightly below the expected 52.2, while the services PMI was at 53.9, also below the expected 54. The composite PMI initial value was 53.6, indicating a relatively high level [2] - The second revision of Q2 GDP in the U.S. was adjusted upward by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, with consumption and investment also revised upward, showing stronger economic resilience than previously expected [2] - The unemployment claims decreased to 218,000, below the expected 235,000, indicating a stable job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve officials have shown a divide in their views, with some calling for significant rate cuts, while others do not support further reductions. The overall sentiment leans towards the necessity of additional cuts due to increasing risks in the job market [3][4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected GDP growth rate of 3.9% for Q3, reflecting strong consumer spending and improving real estate data [3] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Impacts - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. could negatively impact GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points per week, but most losses are expected to be recouped once the government reopens [4] - Trump's policies, including tariffs, have contributed to inflationary pressures and increased market uncertainty, which may support gold prices [6] - The recent signing of the GENIUS Act legalizing stablecoins could have lasting effects on dollar credit, potentially influencing gold prices depending on the stability of these digital currencies [6] Group 5: Long-term Gold Outlook - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and increased demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to provide upward momentum for gold prices [7] - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, indicating a sustained trend in central bank gold purchases [7]