XIAOMI(HK:01810) Feng Huang Wang·2025-09-29 11:59Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's stock experienced a decline of 2.01% after initially dropping over 3% on September 29 [1] - Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo revised the shipment forecast for the Xiaomi 17 series down by 20%, from an original target of approximately 10 million units, indicating potential shipments may fall below the 8 million units of the 15 series if no aggressive pricing or marketing strategies are implemented [3][4] Group 1: Shipment and Demand Analysis - The primary reason for the downward revision is the lower-than-expected demand for the standard version of the Xiaomi 17 series, which was initially expected to account for 50-55% of total shipments but only represented about 15-20% after launch [4] - Although there has been an increase in orders for the Pro Max and Pro models, it has not compensated for the reduced orders of the standard version [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The Xiaomi 17 series faces competitive pressure from both iPhone and Huawei smartphones. The iPhone 17 standard version has exceeded sales expectations in the Chinese market, and upcoming models in 2026 will further intensify competition [4] - Huawei's high-end models are currently facing demand issues due to compatibility with the HarmonyOS, but this situation is expected to improve in 2026 [4] Group 3: Company Response and Sales Performance - On the same day as the shipment revision, Xiaomi's President Lu Weibing expressed confidence in the sales performance of the Xiaomi 17 series, stating that initial sales were promising and that the Pro Max model was performing particularly well [5] - The company has decided to increase orders for the Pro model and has also introduced a new 1TB version of the standard model, which will begin delivery on October 5 [5] - The Xiaomi 17 series was officially launched on September 25, with starting prices set at 4,499 yuan for the standard model, 4,999 yuan for the Pro, and 5,999 yuan for the Pro Max [6]