小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 2026 年 04 月 01 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 31.76 港元 | | 分析师 | 崔琰 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110023 | | | 邮箱： | cuiyan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 方竞 | | 执业证书： S0590525120003 | | | 邮箱： | fangjing@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 蔡濠宇 | | 执业证书： S0590125110078 | | | 邮箱： | caihaoyu@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -40% -17% 7% 30% 2025/4 2025/9 2026/3 小米集团-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_For ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业深度 2026 年 04 月 01 日 电子 / 消费电子 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 行业及产业 从技术融合到生态构建，把握穿戴智能化新浪潮 ——AI 眼镜行业深度报告 - 行业 2023 年以来迎来爆发式增长，但仍处培育期，增长空间广阔。AI 眼镜是技术融合下的 智能穿戴新形态，相较 AR、VR、XR 智能眼镜，是当前最具大众普及潜力的近眼终端，2023 年以来行业迎来爆发式增长，2023-2025 年全球销量从 24 万台暴增至 766 万台，核心驱动 力源于端侧大模型落地、硬件技术升级以及巨头入局。当前行业仍处培育期，定价集中于中 高端区间，未覆盖大众消费群体，海外市场占主导地位，中国市场仍处于产品导入与用户教 育的早期阶段，渗透率低，但增长强劲，未来随着供应链成熟与价格带下 ...

小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 457,287 | 502,996 | 582,229 | 667,783 | | 增长率（%） | 25.0 | 10.0 | 15.8 | 14.7 | | 归母净利润 | 41,643 | 33,265 | 43,633 | 54,324 | | 增长率（%） | 76.0 | -20.1 | 31.2 | 24.5 | | EPS | 1.61 | 1.28 | 1.68 | 2.09 | | P/E | 17 | 22 | 17 | 13 | | P/B | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 reached 457.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while adjusted net profit was approximately 39.2 billion yuan, up 43.8% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to deliver 550,000 cars in 2026, with a significant increase in automotive deliveries expected [2] - Xiaomi's AI capabilities are gaining traction, with the launch of new AI models and products that are expected to enhance its ecosystem [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 509.6 billion yuan in 2026, 576.0 billion yuan in 2027, and 623.4 billion yuan in 2028, with adjusted net profits estimated at 34.5 billion yuan, 42.8 billion yuan, and 50.3 billion yuan respectively [4][11] - The company is expected to experience a decline in smartphone gross margin to around 8% in 2026 due to rising storage costs [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 6.8% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 reached 457.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while adjusted net profit was approximately 39.2 billion yuan, up 43.8% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to deliver 550,000 cars in 2026, with a significant increase in automotive deliveries expected [2] - Xiaomi's AI capabilities are gaining traction, with new models and applications expected to enhance its ecosystem [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: 509.6 billion yuan in 2026, 576.0 billion yuan in 2027, and 623.4 billion yuan in 2028, with adjusted net profits of approximately 34.5 billion yuan, 42.8 billion yuan, and 50.3 billion yuan respectively [4][11] - The company is expected to face a decline in smartphone gross margin to around 8% in 2026 due to rising storage costs [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 6.8% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare platform that has scaled in three major sectors: global smartphones, consumer AIoT, and smart electric vehicles. As of Q4 2025, Xiaomi ranks among the top three in global smartphone shipments for 22 consecutive quarters, with a projected market share of 13.3% by 2025. The AIoT platform is expected to connect 1.08 billion devices by the end of 2025, establishing a leading position in the consumer IoT market. The automotive segment is projected to deliver 411,000 vehicles in 2025, with strong early demand for the new Xiaomi SU7 model [6][10][12]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections (in million CNY) for Xiaomi Group are as follows: - 2024: 365,906.35 - 2025: 457,286.69 - 2026E: 539,450.02 - 2027E: 656,374.58 - 2028E: 801,697.62 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 35.04% for 2024, 24.97% for 2025, and 17.97% for 2026 [5][18]. - Net profit projections (in million CNY) are: - 2024: 23,658.13 - 2025: 41,643.39 - 2026E: 33,830.95 - 2027E: 43,178.52 - 2028E: 54,244.52 - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 76.02% [5][18]. Business Segments and Valuation - The report estimates that by 2026, the mobile and AIoT business will generate revenue of 375 billion CNY, with a net profit of 31.9 billion CNY. The automotive and AI innovation business is expected to generate 164.4 billion CNY in revenue, with a net profit of 3.3 billion CNY. The valuation method applied is a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, assigning a PE of 20x for the mobile and AIoT business and a PS of 1.5x for the automotive segment [16][18]. - The target total market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at approximately 10,018 billion HKD, representing an upside potential of 19% from the current market value [6][16]. Key Assumptions - Revenue growth is driven by strong performance in the automotive sector, with expected growth rates of 55%, 50%, and 40% for the automotive business from 2026 to 2028. The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for the company, marking a transition to a more profitable phase as the automotive scale effects become evident [6][12]. Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include the successful launch of new automotive models, expansion in overseas markets, and advancements in AI technology. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring order conversion rates for the new SU7 model and the company's progress in international markets [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare platform that has scaled in three major sectors: global smartphones, consumer AIoT, and smart electric vehicles. As of Q4 2025, Xiaomi ranks among the top three in global smartphone shipments for 22 consecutive quarters, with a projected market share of 13.3% in 2025. The AIoT platform is expected to connect 1.08 billion devices by the end of 2025, establishing a leading position in the consumer IoT market. The automotive segment is projected to deliver 411,000 vehicles in 2025, with strong early demand for the new Xiaomi SU7 model [6][5][12]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections (in million CNY) for Xiaomi Group are as follows: - 2024: 365,906.35 - 2025: 457,286.69 - 2026E: 539,450.02 - 2027E: 656,374.58 - 2028E: 801,697.62 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 35.04% for 2024, 24.97% for 2025, and gradually declining to 22.14% by 2028 [5][18]. - Net profit forecasts (in million CNY) are: - 2024: 23,658.13 - 2025: 41,643.39 - 2026E: 33,830.95 - 2027E: 43,178.52 - 2028E: 54,244.52 - The report anticipates a significant increase in automotive and AI-related revenues, with a projected growth rate of 55% in 2026 [5][6]. Business Segments and Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a PE of 20x for the smartphone and AIoT business and a PS of 1.5x for the automotive and AI segments. The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at approximately 10,018 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19% [6][16]. - The automotive and AI innovation business is expected to generate significant revenue growth, with projections of 164.4 billion CNY in 2026, contributing to the overall revenue growth strategy [12][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi is recognized for its strong market positioning in the smartphone and AIoT sectors, with a focus on high-end product offerings and international expansion. The report highlights that concerns regarding storage price increases and competition in the automotive sector may be overstated, as the company's diversification strategy provides a robust buffer against potential profit pressures [6][12].

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2026年3月31日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | | 說明 | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | ...

Industry Information - Chinese automakers have achieved the highest global sales, surpassing Japan for the first time in 25 years, with total sales nearing 27 million units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting research on the recycling and utilization system for used power batteries from new energy vehicles [9] - Wuxi Runbei Technology has invested 560 million yuan in a new energy vehicle parts project, expected to generate annual revenue of 500 million yuan upon reaching full production [11] - The export of finished vehicles through the Horgos port has seen a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9% in the first two months of the year [12] - CATL has established a new technology company in Nanning with a registered capital of 10 million yuan [13] - The price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 7.1% month-on-month [13] - Chongqing Jiangjin has signed multiple hydrogen energy and new energy vehicle parts projects, including a 1 billion yuan investment in a hydrogen fuel cell production base [13] - Huawei's HarmonyOS is expected to have over 2,459 sales outlets and 1,459 service outlets by the end of the year [12] Policy Information - The Guangdong province is planning to build 810 charging piles in public institution parking lots, with a total investment of approximately 720 million yuan [24] - The Inner Mongolia Tongliao development plan emphasizes the construction of parking spaces and charging piles to enhance urban mobility [25] - The Tianjin Municipal Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan to increase the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities, aiming to build over 500,000 charging facilities by the end of 2027 [28] Company Information - Xiaomi's automotive business revenue has exceeded 1 billion yuan for the first time in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 223.8% [36] - Li Auto has announced a stock repurchase plan of up to 1 billion USD, reflecting confidence in its strategic roadmap [37] - BYD is accelerating its entry into the Canadian market, planning to open about 20 stores in its first year [36] - XPeng Motors has established a Robotaxi division, planning to launch passenger demonstration operations in the second half of the year [33] - A new battery platform has been launched by Huawei, focusing on enhancing safety and efficiency in new energy vehicles [17]

飞天茅台价格上调 大事观察 3月制造业 PMI 升至50.4%重返扩张区间 3月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心与中国物流与采购联合会联合发布数据显示，3月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.4%，比上月上升1.4个百分 点，高于50%的临界点，制造业景气水平回升。这是该指数自2月份回落至收缩区间后，时隔一个月重返扩张区间。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，持续处于扩张区间；中型企业PMI为49.0%，比上月上升1.5个百分点；小型企业PMI 为49.3%，比上月上升4.0个百分点，虽仍低于临界点，但回升幅度最为显著。 3月30日，贵州茅台酒股份有限公司发布重大事项公告，宣布自3月31日起，对核心产品飞天53%vol500ml贵州茅台酒（2026年）执行价格调整。其中， 经销商销售合同价（出厂价）从1169元/瓶上调至1269元/瓶，涨幅约8.55%；自营体系零售价从1499元/瓶上调至1539元/瓶，涨幅约2.67%。 此次调价是茅台自2018年以来首次同时调整出厂价和自营零售价，也是设立八年来首次上调自营体系零售价。公告明确表示，价格调整将对公司经营业 绩产生一定影响 ...