Nike Earnings: History Shows 63% Chance of Post-Report Drop

Group 1 - Nike is expected to report fiscal Q1 earnings on September 30, 2025, with projected earnings of 26 cents per share and revenue of $10.99 billion, indicating a 63% year-over-year decrease in earnings and a 5% decline in sales compared to the previous year [2] - Historical data shows that Nike's stock has fallen 63% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decrease of 6.5% and a maximum decline of 20% [2] - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit revenue reduction and a 350–425 basis points impact on gross margin, including around 100 basis points from new U.S. tariffs [2] Group 2 - Nike's current market capitalization is $102 billion, with revenue over the last twelve months at $46 billion, operating profits of $3.7 billion, and a net income of $3.2 billion [2] - The success of Nike's "Win Now" turnaround strategy is deemed crucial to halt its decline amid challenges such as tariffs, aging inventory, and subdued demand in China [2] - Historical trends indicate that event-driven traders can benefit from understanding past earnings reactions, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 37% of the time over the past five years [3][5]