价格持续新高！黄金各阶段配置比例看这个

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that gold has significantly outperformed major stock indices this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, highlighting its status as a key asset in the current economic climate influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2]. Market Performance - The London gold price has risen to 3801.950, marking an increase of 43.170 or 1.15% [1]. - Major stock indices such as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have shown positive year-to-date performances of 8.70%, 16.43%, and 12.96% respectively [2]. Gold Investment Strategies - The article discusses two established asset allocation models: the Permanent Portfolio and the All-Weather Portfolio. - The Permanent Portfolio, proposed by Harry Browne, allocates 25% to stocks, 25% to long-term bonds, 25% to short-term bonds, and 25% to gold, aiming for stability across different economic conditions [3][4]. - The All-Weather Portfolio, created by Ray Dalio, suggests a more dynamic allocation of 30% to stocks, 40% to long-term bonds, 15% to intermediate bonds, 7.5% to gold, and 7.5% to other commodities, focusing on risk balance and efficiency [12][14]. Historical Performance - Both the Permanent and All-Weather Portfolios have achieved annualized returns of approximately 8%-9% from 1971 to 2024, with low volatility and high success rates, generating positive returns in 8 to 9 out of 10 years [15][16]. - The article notes that aside from 2022, when both portfolios experienced losses due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, they have generally performed well [18]. Recommendations for Gold Allocation - The article suggests varying gold allocation based on risk tolerance: - Aggressive investors may allocate 5%-10% to gold for extreme risk hedging. - Moderate investors might consider 10%-15%, aligning with Dalio's recent advice to increase gold allocation to 15%. - Conservative investors could allocate 20%-25% to gold, following the Permanent Portfolio model [18].