若政府机构“停摆”，美国旅游业将受冲击

Core Viewpoint - The risk of a U.S. federal government shutdown is increasing as bipartisan negotiations stall, potentially leading to significant economic losses, particularly in the tourism sector, estimated at up to $1 billion per week if the shutdown occurs [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Tourism Industry - The American Tourism Association has warned that a government shutdown could result in weekly losses of up to $1 billion for the tourism industry [3]. - Specific impacts include longer wait times at airport security due to staff shortages, increased flight delays and cancellations, and the closure or reduced services of national parks and federally operated museums [5]. - A survey indicates that 60% of U.S. residents would cancel or avoid air travel during a shutdown, with over 80% believing it would harm the economy and inconvenience travelers [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Valuation - Historical patterns show that government shutdowns often lead to political stalemates, which markets typically overlook; however, current market conditions are different, with U.S. stock valuations at historical highs, making the market more susceptible to negative events [7]. - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the total market capitalization against U.S. GDP, currently stands at 217%, significantly exceeding levels seen during the dot-com bubble and indicating that stock market expansion is outpacing economic growth [9]. Group 3: Employment Market Concerns - The impending government shutdown could lead to up to 900,000 federal employees being forced to take unpaid leave, impacting the labor market [11]. - There is concern that the shutdown may prevent the release of critical employment data, which is essential for market analysis [13].