天风证券-水井坊-600779-行业调整期阶段承压，静待需求回暖

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenues of 1.498 billion and a net profit of 105 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 12.84% and 56.52% respectively [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with figures of 539 million and a net loss of 85 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of 31.37% and 251.25% respectively [1] Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor business generated 492 million in revenue during Q2 2025, down 33.76% year-on-year, despite an increase in sales volume to 1,726.01 thousand liters, which is an 8.56% increase [1] - The revenue from high-end and mid-range products was 454 million and 38 million respectively, with high-end liquor accounting for 92.26% of total revenue, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Performance - Domestic and international revenues for Q2 2025 were 470 million and 22 million respectively, with domestic revenue down 35.18% and international revenue up 24.66%, indicating a gradual improvement in international market expansion [2] - The company reported a significant increase in new channel sales, which reached 181 million, up 70.82% year-on-year, with new channels now accounting for 36.88% of total sales [2] Financial Metrics - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 were 74.42% and -15.75% respectively, reflecting declines of 7.13 and 22.90 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increased to 52.10% and 35.50% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 19.87 and 13.92 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue and profit forecasts downward for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 4.64 billion, 4.95 billion, and 5.24 billion, and net profits of 960 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.14 billion respectively [3] - The company has adjusted its rating to "Accumulate" based on the revised forecasts [3]