结构性行情线索: 资源安全、企业出海和科技竞争

Core Viewpoint - The current market has established a clear configuration framework of "resources + overseas expansion + new productive forces," driven by traditional resource supply constraints, the reshaping of ROE due to Chinese companies' overseas expansion, and strategic opportunities arising from the reconstruction of the edge AI ecosystem [1][2] Group 1: Resource Security - Traditional resource industries are facing supply constraints due to insufficient global capital expenditure in a high-interest rate environment, leading to frequent supply shocks [2][3] - The investment shortfall in traditional industries, particularly upstream resources, remains unresolved, with private sector investments in developed countries continuing to be weak [2][3] - The Congo's recent cobalt export policy updates and Indonesia's tightening of nickel processing exports highlight the increasing frequency of supply shocks due to complex geopolitical environments [3] Group 2: Corporate Overseas Expansion - The globalization of Chinese companies is a core but relatively obscure fundamental clue for the current market, with overseas revenue contributing significantly to profits and market capitalization [4] - The stability of the trade environment and China's anti-involution policies are crucial for maintaining market momentum, as they support the overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises [4] - The upcoming APEC meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session are critical for assessing the sustainability of trade relations and the overall globalization strategy of Chinese companies [4] Group 3: Technological Competition - Chinese tech giants are shifting from strategic restraint to strategic aggression in AI, with significant investments announced by major companies like Alibaba and Tencent [5][6] - The potential shift of AI focus from cloud to edge computing presents substantial opportunities for domestic application ecosystems, potentially revitalizing the Chinese mobile internet landscape [6] - The competitive landscape in AI is intensifying, with predictions of significant growth in global AI investments, indicating a critical period for Chinese companies to capitalize on emerging opportunities [5][6] Group 4: Market Configuration Framework - Resource security, corporate overseas expansion, and technological competition are key structural clues that will dominate market trends, corresponding to the framework of resources + overseas expansion + new productive forces [7] - The focus should remain on sectors with real profit realization or strong industrial trends, particularly in resources, consumer electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gaming [7]