市场将“失明”？美政府关门风险上升，本周非农有点“悬”

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on monetary policy, leading traders to reduce bets on further easing after stronger-than-expected economic data [1][2] - The potential government shutdown starting October 1 could delay the release of key economic data, including the closely watched non-farm payroll report [2][5] - The market is pricing in an approximately 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's meeting on October 28-29, but more weak data is needed to support the view of a cooling labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.2%, up from a five-month low of just below 4% on September 17, following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed [3][4] - Recent reports showing a decline in initial jobless claims and robust second-quarter economic growth have led traders to slightly reduce expectations for further easing [3][4] - The market anticipates that the upcoming government data will show an increase of 50,000 non-farm jobs in September, a rebound from an average of less than 30,000 in the previous three months [3] Group 3 - Fed officials are facing conflicting risks of a slowing labor market and rising inflation, with some advocating for more rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [4] - The U.S. Treasury options market shows buyers betting that the 10-year yield will drop to 4% or lower by the end of November, while short positions in U.S. Treasuries are increasing [4] - The importance of data not affected by the government shutdown, such as the ADP private employment report, has increased, with a strong employment report potentially influencing interest rate decisions [5]