美联储独立性的最大威胁不是特朗普，而是分裂的国会

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve has created a divergence from the mainstream stance, with Miran advocating for a significant reduction in real interest rates despite inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy and Independence - Miran voted against a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, suggesting a 50 basis point cut instead, and called for a further reduction of 1.25 percentage points by 2025, targeting a federal funds rate range of 2.75% to 3% [2] - The Federal Reserve's independence is increasingly questioned, particularly in light of political influences and the role of Congress in confirming appointments [3][4] - The current political climate raises concerns about the balance of power between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch, with potential implications for monetary policy [3][8] Group 2: Congressional Oversight and Accountability - Congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve has been criticized as weak, with multiple inquiries from Senate Democrats going unanswered [4][6] - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and Congress is described as interdependent, highlighting the need for congressional support to maintain the Fed's credibility [4][5] - There is a growing concern that the executive branch is stepping into a supervisory role, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [4][8] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Context - Inflation reached a peak of 9.1% in 2022, driven by supply chain issues and significant fiscal stimulus, which were beyond the Fed's control [5] - The Federal Reserve's delayed response to rising inflation signals has been a point of contention, with some economists attributing part of the blame to the Fed's new policy framework adopted in 2020 [5][6] - The political polarization in Congress has weakened oversight of the Federal Reserve, complicating the institution's ability to navigate economic challenges [8]