长假来临 持股还是持币？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that many institutions favor holding stocks during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, citing historical trends of post-holiday market performance [2][3][4] - Historical data shows a 60% probability of A-shares rising in the five trading days after the National Day holiday, particularly during bull markets where the post-holiday gains tend to be sustained [3][4] - Over 65% of surveyed private equity firms prefer to hold heavy positions (over 70% allocation) during the holiday, indicating a strong bullish sentiment despite recent market fluctuations [4][5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may continue its oscillating trend in the short term, but risks during the holiday period are limited, supporting the case for holding stocks [4][6] - Key factors influencing post-holiday market performance include policies, external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with a positive outlook if these factors remain favorable [4][6] - The upcoming quarter is expected to present significant investment opportunities, particularly in new sectors such as AI, robotics, and "anti-involution" themes [7][8][10] Group 3 - Institutions anticipate that the market may challenge new highs in the fourth quarter, driven by changes in monetary policy and economic expectations [8][9] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive, with potential upward movement in the market following the holiday [6][9] - Specific sectors such as new energy, robotics, and semiconductors are highlighted as having structural growth potential, with a focus on identifying opportunities in these areas [10][11]