10月加息定了？日本央行鸽派委员转向：现在“比以往任何時候”都更需要加息

Core Viewpoint - The necessity for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is more urgent than ever, as indicated by BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi, suggesting a shift towards a more hawkish stance [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Strong economic data supports the case for interest rate hikes, with corporate profits increasing and companies more easily passing on rising costs to consumers [5]. - Various inflation expectation indicators are gradually aligning with the BOJ's 2% target, with core inflation remaining above 2% for over three years [5]. Internal Support for Tightening - The internal support for tightening measures within the BOJ is growing, as evidenced by two committee members voting in favor of rate hikes earlier this month [4]. - Market expectations for a rate hike during the upcoming BOJ meeting on October 29-30 have surged, with traders pricing in a 60% probability, more than double from earlier in the month [4]. Risks to Economic Outlook - Despite the rationale for rate hikes, there are still risks to the economic outlook, including potential slowdowns in consumer inflation rates due to easing import price pressures [6]. - Actual wage growth, a key variable affecting consumption and inflation, may take time to show an upward trend, putting pressure on household purchasing power [6]. Asset Purchase Policy - Noguchi advocates for reducing the size of the BOJ's balance sheet while considering market stability, emphasizing the need for the market to determine asset prices [7]. - He warns against the consequences of prolonged quantitative easing, suggesting that excessive reduction of reserves could hinder the BOJ's ability to control money market rates effectively [7]. Upcoming Events - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to visit Osaka and hold a press conference, where he may comment on the Tankan survey results, potentially indicating shifts in economic assessment [8]. - Political instability following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's announcement of resignation may complicate the BOJ's operations, especially if a pro-easing candidate wins the ruling party's presidential election [8].