关税+降息+金卡，特朗普新政看似凌乱，实则是给美国财政填坑

Group 1 - The core issue is that the U.S. government is facing a significant fiscal deficit, with interest payments on national debt projected to rise from $432.6 billion in 2016 to nearly $1.13 trillion by August 2025, an increase of $700 billion in just a few years [1][3] - The total national debt has reached $37.3 trillion, an increase of $17.3 trillion since the end of 2016, averaging an annual increase of $2 trillion [3] - The government has attempted to address the deficit through tariffs and spending cuts, expecting to raise $200 billion from tariffs and save $200 billion from optimized spending, but actual savings only amounted to $100 billion, leaving a $400 billion gap [5] Group 2 - Trump’s strategy to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates is insufficient, with estimates suggesting that even a 200 basis point cut would only save $1.93 trillion, far from closing the $400 billion gap [7] - The pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates undermines its independence, which is crucial for managing inflation and employment [8] - The potential for investors to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar could lead to higher long-term interest rates, creating a negative feedback loop [10] Group 3 - The recent U.S. fiscal maneuvers may create opportunities for non-U.S. assets, particularly Chinese assets, as the depreciation of the dollar and lower interest rates could lead to capital outflows from the U.S. [13][15] - Foreign capital is likely to flow into Chinese markets, starting with Hong Kong stocks, which benefit from the stability of the Chinese economy and the potential appreciation of the renminbi [15][17] - The Chinese market, particularly in sectors like automotive and renewable energy, is positioned for growth due to its global competitive advantages and supportive government policies [17][19]