天风证券-水井坊-600779-行业调整期阶段承压，静待需求回暖-250929

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenues of 1.498 billion and a net profit of 105 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 12.84% and 56.52% respectively [2] - The second quarter of 2025 saw even steeper declines, with revenues of 539 million and a net loss of 85 million, reflecting year-on-year drops of 31.37% and 251.25% [2] Group 1: Business Performance - The company's liquor business revenue in Q2 2025 was 492 million, down 33.76% year-on-year, despite an increase in sales volume of 8.56% to 1,726.01 thousand liters, indicating a significant drop in price per ton [3] - The average price per ton in Q2 2025 was 284,900 per thousand liters, which is a decrease of 38.98% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Domestic revenue in Q2 2025 was 470 million, down 35.18% year-on-year, while international revenue was 22 million, up 24.66%, showing a gradual improvement in international market penetration [3] - The proportion of international revenue increased by 2.10 percentage points year-on-year, indicating successful efforts in expanding overseas markets [3] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin and net profit margin in Q2 2025 were 74.42% and -15.75% respectively, reflecting declines of 7.13 and 22.90 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Selling and administrative expense ratios increased significantly, with selling expenses rising by 19.87 percentage points to 52.10% and administrative expenses increasing by 13.92 percentage points to 35.50% [3] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was 70 million [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the ongoing industry adjustment period, the company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 4.64 billion, 4.95 billion, and 5.24 billion, down from previous estimates of 5.48 billion, 5.85 billion, and 6.18 billion [3] - The revised net profit forecasts for the same period are 960 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.14 billion, down from earlier projections of 1.42 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.68 billion [3]