基本面延续宽松格局 纯碱难以走出独立行情

Core Viewpoint - The supply-side contraction expectations and seasonal demand improvement have slowed the decline in soda ash prices, but the weak market structure is unlikely to change due to high supply and inventory levels [1][2]. Supply and Production - Current production levels of soda ash remain high, with a weekly output of 776,900 tons as of September 25, marking a historical peak [2]. - New soda ash capacity additions are expected in the fourth quarter, with a 2.8 million ton natural soda project by Yuanxing Energy successfully ignited, potentially increasing capacity by over 7% [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to regulate cement and flat glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity while promoting the exit of outdated capacity [1]. Raw Material Prices - Raw material prices have remained firm, but recent trends indicate a potential decline in coal prices due to improved supply conditions as previously shut coal mines resume production [2]. - The current theoretical profit for soda ash production using the lithium carbonate method is -77.5 yuan/ton, while the ammonia soda method is -37.20 yuan/ton, indicating a low profit environment [1]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for heavy soda ash is primarily driven by the glass industry, with recent improvements in photovoltaic glass production supporting a slight recovery in demand [3]. - However, the demand for heavy soda ash has softened due to a slowdown in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass and reduced purchasing enthusiasm from downstream component manufacturers [3]. - The real estate market is experiencing an adjustment phase, with new construction area and investment declining, which may limit the demand for soda ash [3]. Inventory Levels - As of September 25, domestic soda ash inventory stood at 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 216,000 tons or 11.56% from the previous period, although inventory levels remain high compared to previous years [2][3]. - Despite the reduction in inventory, the overall supply situation remains high, and the upcoming natural soda project is expected to exacerbate supply pressures [3].