Group 1 - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest, has temporarily halted production due to a serious mudflow accident, leading to a significant rebound in copper prices in Shanghai [1][2] - The accident at Grasberg has exacerbated the global copper supply shortage, with Freeport-McMoRan reducing its copper and gold sales forecasts for Q3 2023 due to force majeure [2] - Global copper mine production is expected to rise by 7.2% year-on-year to 201.24 million tons by July 2025, but the Grasberg incident is projected to reduce copper concentrate output by 250,000 to 260,000 tons from previous estimates [2] Group 2 - The processing fee for copper concentrate has dropped sharply since 2023, reaching negative values, with the import copper concentrate index reported at -40.36 USD per dry ton as of September 26 [3] - Global copper inventories across three major exchanges totaled 535,500 tons as of September 26, showing a year-on-year increase of 36,200 tons [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been decreasing, with a reported decline to 140,100 tons as of September 25, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Group 3 - The operating rate of domestic copper cable enterprises was reported at 65.44%, a significant year-on-year decrease of 32.24 percentage points, reflecting weak demand in key sectors such as electricity, construction, and automotive [4] - Despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, downstream orders remain weak, and many enterprises plan to halt production for the upcoming holidays, further constraining operational rates [4] - The structural tightening of supply is expected to provide solid support for copper prices, with the Shanghai copper main contract projected to trade in a range between 80,400 and 83,350 RMB per ton [4]
底部支撑较为牢固 节后沪铜或震荡偏强为主
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-29 23:33