聚乙烯“银十”值得期待

Core Viewpoint - In the third quarter, driven by the "anti-involution" trend, overall commodity prices have stopped declining and rebounded. However, polyethylene has underperformed, especially during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," where demand did not improve significantly, leading to price declines, with prices nearing 7000 yuan/ton [1]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The traditional peak demand season for polyethylene, "Golden September and Silver October," has not shown significant characteristics this year, with delayed demand for agricultural films and low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors [1]. - As of late September, the polyethylene operating rate was around 83%, marking a historical low for the same period, due to increased unplanned maintenance [2]. - Despite the weak demand, supply pressure has eased significantly, as there has been no new capacity impact in the second half of the year, and the overall operating rate has rebounded to around 90% in August before declining again in September [2]. Group 2: Price and Cost Factors - The cost support for polyethylene is gradually strengthening, with oil-based polyethylene experiencing losses exceeding 500 yuan/ton, while coal-based processes remain profitable [2]. - The market anticipates a potential demand surge post-National Day, with low inventory levels and the possibility of a sustained demand increase for agricultural films until late November [1][2]. - The "anti-involution" policy in the chemical sector is expected to be implemented, which may gradually change the current weak market situation for polyethylene [2].