短期供应压力较大 豆粕反弹乏力

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil starting September 23, lasting until October 31 or until export declarations reach $7 billion, raising concerns about the outlook for U.S. soybean exports [1] Group 1: Export Tariff Changes - Argentina temporarily reduced soybean export tariffs from 26% to 0%, and soybean meal and oil tariffs from 24.5% to 0%, leading to a significant drop in Argentina's soybean premium [2] - Following the announcement, Argentina's soybean premium fell to 207 cents per bushel, while Brazil's soybean premium dropped to 289 cents per bushel [2] - By September 25, Argentina reported that the $7 billion export application quota was filled, with approximately 3 million tons of soybean export applications [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - Domestic soybean meal futures in Dalian fell to 2,907 yuan per ton, a decrease of 190 yuan per ton from earlier highs, reflecting a 6.13% drop [1] - The domestic soybean meal inventory days increased to 9.6 days, indicating a higher inventory level compared to the previous year [3] - The current soybean meal price in East China is 2,910 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan per ton from early September, with a basis of 60 yuan per ton above the futures contract [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Forecasts indicate that soybean arrivals in China for September to November will be lower than the previous year, with expected arrivals of 10 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 8.5 million tons respectively [3] - The anticipated soybean import gap for the first quarter of next year is projected to be between 4 million to 5 million tons, although this gap may narrow due to Argentina's tariff reduction [2][3] - The outlook for soybean prices remains uncertain, with potential downward pressure on domestic soybean meal prices if U.S. soybean purchases resume and South American soybean yields are strong [4]