Deutsche Bank AG(US:DB) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-29 23:52Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are becoming the main driving forces behind gold prices, which recently surpassed $3,800, reaching a historical high due to various factors including U.S. interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 0.2% month-on-month and remained stable at 2.9% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [3] - Traders currently estimate a nearly 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and about a 65% chance of another cut in December, driven by the recent moderate inflation data [4] - Investor sentiment is optimistic, with expectations that gold prices may test historical highs again this week, although heavy long positions in the gold market may require caution [4] Group 2: Geopolitical and Government Factors - The U.S. government faces a shutdown risk, with President Trump scheduled to meet with congressional leaders to negotiate funding extensions [4] - The potential government shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, including job vacancies and non-farm payroll reports, which investors are closely monitoring [5] Group 3: Gold Demand and Supply Dynamics - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, with annual net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons since 2022, and projected to reach 900 tons by 2025 [6] - The World Gold Council (WGC) indicates that central bank purchases will account for 23% of total annual demand from 2022 to 2025, double the average from 2016 to 2021 [6] Group 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell by nearly 0.3%, dropping below 98, with a cumulative decline of over 10% this year due to Fed rate cut expectations and trade policies [8] - The relationship between gold and the dollar has been notably inverse, with a weaker dollar supporting gold prices [8] Group 5: ETF Investment and Market Impact - Gold ETFs have become a significant source of demand, with inflows reaching 397 tons in the first half of the year, the highest since 2020 [9] - Deutsche Bank reports that the influence of ETFs on gold pricing has increased by 50% over the past three years, supporting a bullish price target of $4,000 per ounce [9] Group 6: Retail and Jewelry Demand - Retail investment in gold products shows strong demand, with gold bar investment expected to grow by 10% in 2024, while coin purchases are projected to decline by 31% [10] - Jewelry demand is sensitive to price changes, with high gold prices leading to a decrease in demand, particularly in major markets like China and India [11]