贵金属市场看涨热度不减

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing bullish momentum, driven primarily by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve following its first rate cut of the year in September [1][2]. Market Performance - As of September 29, 2023, spot gold rose by 1.90% to $3,821.40 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.80% to $3,859.00 per ounce. Spot silver saw a rise of 1.75% to $46.8855 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 0.84% to $47.050 per ounce [1]. - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to a decline in the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver due to lower federal funds rates [1]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising as the 2026 chairmanship transition approaches. Candidates for the new chair have expressed support for further monetary easing, influenced by political perspectives [2]. - The expectation of significant monetary easing under the new chair is seen as a factor contributing to the rise in precious metal prices, reflecting market sentiment towards the dollar's credibility and Fed policies [2]. Economic Data Insights - Recent U.S. economic data has generally exceeded expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% and personal spending growth at 2.5% [2]. - Inflation indicators show the core PCE index rose to 2.9% in August, and the manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 52, indicating continued economic expansion [2]. Trading Positions and Market Sentiment - There has been an increase in net long positions in gold and silver by overseas management funds, with COMEX gold net positions rising by 1,578 contracts to 160,500 contracts, and silver net positions increasing by 1,293 contracts to 37,000 contracts [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 87.8 on September 17 to 81.3 on September 29, indicating stronger performance in silver relative to gold [3]. Upcoming Economic Events - The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown, which could impact the release of non-farm payroll data. If the shutdown is avoided, employment data could significantly influence Fed policy expectations [3]. - Attention is also on the upcoming ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, as strong manufacturing data could lead to further declines in the gold-silver ratio [3]. Investor Strategy - Investors are advised to align their strategies with their investment horizons and risk preferences, especially given the heightened sensitivity to Fed policy statements during the holiday period [4]. - Long-term investors should focus on gold as a hedge against inflation and systemic risks, while short-term traders should prioritize risk management due to potential market volatility during the holiday [4].