LME期锡跳升至近六个月高位，因担忧印尼供应

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tin prices is driven by supply concerns following Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining operations, which is expected to significantly impact the country's tin production and exports [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Concerns - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal mining sites in Bangka Belitung province, which is expected to prevent losses of up to 450 trillion rupiah (approximately $28 billion) by 2026 [2]. - Approximately 80% of tin production in Bangka Belitung is smuggled abroad through various means, including small boats and passenger ships [2]. - The International Tin Association projected that Indonesia's refined tin output could drop to below 50,000 tons in 2024, marking a 20-year low [4]. Group 2: Price Movements - As of September 29, LME three-month tin prices rose by 2.8% to $35,455 per ton, reaching a peak of $35,510, the highest level since April 4 [2][6]. - The Shanghai tin futures contract also saw a significant increase, climbing 3.9% to a maximum of 283,000 yuan, the highest since April 3 for the main continuous contract [3].