一场史无前例的数据真空！若政府关门，非农、CPI都将推迟

Core Points - A potential U.S. government shutdown could disrupt the Federal Reserve and Wall Street's key "information source," impacting the Fed's ability to justify interest rate cuts [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may halt operations and delay the employment report scheduled for October 3 if Congress fails to reach an agreement by the end of the fiscal year [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding President Trump's policies makes employment, inflation, and spending indicators particularly critical [2] - The government shutdown could delay significant economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data [2][4] Economic Indicators - Scheduled economic reports that may be affected by the government shutdown include: - Initial jobless claims on October 2, 9, and 16 - Monthly jobs report on October 3 - Trade balance on October 7 - Consumer price index on October 15 - Retail sales on October 16 - Producer price index on October 16 [3] Impact on Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was based on evidence of a cooling labor market, and officials are closely monitoring for further signs of deterioration [3] - The Labor Department's updated guidelines confirm that the BLS will suspend all operations and data collection during a funding interruption [3][4] - The absence of government data could complicate the Fed's ability to justify further rate cuts during its October meeting [4] Alternative Data Sources - Some third-party economic data will still be available, such as private employment data from ADP and existing home sales data from the National Association of Realtors, although these are considered less comprehensive than government data [4] - The lack of macroeconomic summary data could make it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation accurately [4] Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce indicated that while a government shutdown may not push the economy into recession, it would increase uncertainty and costs for businesses already facing challenges [4][5] - The ongoing political struggle is seen as detrimental to economic growth by increasing uncertainty [5]