Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-09-30 00:45Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot gold prices, reaching a new high of $3831 per ounce, is driven by various factors including liquidity, inflation trends, and seasonal demand for gold jewelry [1] Group 1: Short-term Analysis - Most metals are experiencing price increases due to ample liquidity, which is expected to further support gold prices [1] - The financial attributes of gold are likely to enhance its upward trajectory in the short term [1] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - If market sentiment shifts, gold will serve as a strong safe-haven asset, especially if other metals show signs of reversal [1] - The potential for increased demand for gold as a hedge against market volatility is anticipated [1] Group 3: Long-term Perspective - The decline in the credibility of the US dollar is identified as a primary narrative for the current bull market in gold [1] - Future policies from the Trump administration may contribute to further depreciation of the dollar's value [1] Group 4: Inflation and Interest Rates - The ongoing upward trend in US commodity inflation, coupled with a slowdown in service sector inflation, is noted [1] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter its interest rate reduction strategy [1] - The combination of rising tariffs and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 5: Seasonal Demand - The recent increase in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]