3 6 Ke·2025-09-30 00:58Core Conclusion - The investment logic for innovative drugs indicates that 2025 will mark a new recovery starting point for China's innovative drug industry after a deep adjustment, driven by a "triple resonance" of policy, industry, and capital [3][5][7]. Policy Insights - The Chinese government has explicitly supported innovative drugs in the 2025 Government Work Report, with subsequent policies aimed at high-quality development and commercial insurance for innovative drugs, clearing development obstacles across the entire chain [3][5]. Industry Dynamics - The internationalization process is accelerating, with the License-out model becoming a key path for value realization. In the first three quarters of 2025, upfront payments for licensing transactions reached $5.7 billion, surpassing the total for 2024 and accounting for 23.4% of the global total, indicating a significant enhancement in the global value chain position of Chinese innovative drug assets [5][7]. Capital Market Trends - After a deep adjustment from 2022 to 2024, industry valuations are returning to rational levels, with continuous improvement in the fundamentals of companies. In the first half of 2025, sales revenue from 17 commercialized innovative drug companies grew by 30% year-on-year, with leading companies like Innovent Biologics achieving profitability, marking a phase of value reassessment in the industry [7]. Market Size and Growth - The global innovative drug market is expected to reach $782.6 billion in 2024, accounting for 51.3% of the global pharmaceutical market, and is projected to grow to $1,119 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4%, outpacing the overall pharmaceutical market growth of 6.4% [14]. Industry Structure - The innovative drug industry chain is divided into three main segments: upstream (raw materials and support), midstream (R&D and production), and downstream (distribution and payment), forming a complete value chain from scientific discovery to market application [19][21][24]. Business Model Transformation - Chinese innovative drug companies are transitioning from a single reliance on domestic market sales to a dual-driven international strategy of "domestic sales + License-out," marking a new phase where product strength and business model innovation are equally emphasized [28][29]. Revenue Sources - The revenue sources for innovative drug companies are diversifying, including domestic insurance sales, License-out income, and overseas market sales. In 2023, insurance spending on innovative drugs reached 90 billion yuan, maintaining rapid growth since 2019 [28][29][34]. BD Model Growth - The BD (Business Development) model has become a core engine for commercialization, with the total amount of BD transactions involving Chinese innovative drug companies skyrocketing from $5.06 billion in 2020 to $41.76 billion by August 2025, indicating a fundamental shift in the industry's business model [37][38]. Key Segments to Watch - The innovative drug industry includes six key segments: small molecule drugs, large molecule drugs, cell therapy, gene therapy, mRNA vaccines, and precision medicine, each deserving in-depth research [43].