Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has temporarily halted operations due to a serious mudflow accident, leading to a strong rebound in copper prices, with the main contract reaching a six-month high of 83,090 CNY/ton [1] - Global copper supply is tightening, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projecting a 7.2% year-on-year increase in global mine output to 2.0124 million tons by July 2025 [1] - Freeport-McMoRan has lowered its copper and gold sales forecasts for Q3 2023 due to the accident, with a potential production recovery timeline extending to 2026 for certain areas of the Grasberg mine [1] Group 2: Processing Fees and Inventory Trends - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) has dropped significantly, reaching negative values for the first time in 2023, with the index reported at -40.36 USD/dry ton as of September 26 [2] - Global copper inventories across major exchanges have increased to 535,500 tons, with COMEX inventories rising for seven consecutive months [2] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories have decreased to 140,100 tons as of September 25, indicating a trend of inventory reduction despite limited copper imports [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Challenges - The operating rate of domestic copper cable enterprises was reported at 65.44%, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 32.24%, with expectations of further decreases due to the upcoming holidays [3] - The copper smelting sector is under pressure due to negative processing fees and declining sulfuric acid prices, which are squeezing profit margins [3] - Despite entering the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand remains weak, with a slow recovery pace observed in overall consumption [3] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - China's copper industry faces three main challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4] - The Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with industry players to create a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain to assist in navigating these challenges [4] - The outlook for copper prices post-holiday is expected to remain strong, with a projected range of 80,400 to 83,350 CNY/ton for the main contract [4]
沪铜 底部支撑较为牢固
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-30 01:29