新湖期货：锡价下方支撑强 但上行空间受消费抑制

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government's recent actions to suspend 190 non-compliant mining companies and shut down 1,000 illegal mining sites have raised concerns about tin supply, leading to a surge in tin prices, with Shanghai tin reaching 280,000 yuan/ton and London tin rising to $35,500/ton, both hitting new highs since mid-April [1] Group 1: Indonesian Tin Supply - Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of refined tin, accounting for approximately 13.5% of global refined tin production in 2024 [1] - The suspended mining companies are primarily small-scale operations, and the shut-down illegal mining sites have a relatively minor production impact [1] - Indonesia's tin smelters mainly source from legitimate mines, suggesting that the overall impact on the country's tin production will be limited [1] Group 2: Global Tin Market Dynamics - Tin supply is expected to recover as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, and domestic leading companies are nearing the end of maintenance, which will lead to a significant rebound in domestic output [1] - Seasonal consumption improvements are currently limited, which may affect the upward potential of tin prices [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia has caused some disruption in global supply, while recent trends in the LME market indicate a potential squeeze, with inventory levels declining and spot contracts returning to a premium [1] - There are optimistic macroeconomic expectations, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle and positive domestic macro policies anticipated [1] - Overall, while there is strong support for tin prices, the upward movement may be constrained by subdued consumption [1]