张尧浠：关门风险加10月降息预期、金价多头转强再指3880

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum, driven by expectations of a government shutdown in the U.S. and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a target price of $3880 [1][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, gold opened at $3758.15 per ounce, reached a low of $3756.83, and then surged to a high of $3833.94, closing at $3833.71, marking a daily increase of $71.26 or 1.896% from the previous close of $3762.45 [3]. - The gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with support at the $3800 level, and any pullbacks are seen as buying opportunities [3][10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. FHFA House Price Index, S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index, JOLTs Job Openings, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [3][6]. - The potential government shutdown could delay the release of critical economic reports, including the non-farm payroll data and consumer price index, which would impact investor sentiment and the dollar [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price has consistently tested and rebounded from the mid-band support level of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a strong upward trend, despite potential pullback risks [8]. - The daily chart shows that gold has broken through previous resistance levels and is now positioned for further gains, with key support levels at $3818 and $3800, and resistance levels at $3850 and $3880 [10][11].