Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Feng Huang Wang·2025-09-30 02:22Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the "Goldilocks" market for U.S. stocks may face challenges before the end of the year, citing three potential risks: growth shock, interest rate shock, and a new dollar bear market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, with valuations approaching levels seen during the internet bubble, raising concerns about a potential stock market bubble [1]. - Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and technology companies continues to drive the U.S. stock market [1]. Group 2: Risks Identified - The "three bears" risks identified by Goldman Sachs include: - "Growth shock," which could arise from rising unemployment or disappointment with AI [2]. - "Interest rate shock," which refers to the possibility of the Federal Reserve not implementing further rate cuts [3]. - A "new dollar bear market," where the dollar could decline by 10%, negatively impacting foreign investment in U.S. stocks [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the identified risks, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that these shocks have not yet materialized, and the short-term outlook remains stable [4]. - Comparisons have been made between the current S&P 500 index and the late 1990s internet bubble, suggesting that there may still be room for market gains before a potential downturn [4].