盟友被迫掏钱，美国关税收入飙升，特朗普这步棋算精还是险？

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent shift in tariff policy has reshaped the U.S. fiscal landscape and significantly impacted global trade relations [1] Group 1: Impact on U.S.-China Trade Relations - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration in 2019, involving a 25% tariff on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods, has led to retaliatory measures from China, including export controls on rare earth elements [3][5] - As a result of these tariffs, U.S. industries faced supply chain disruptions, with notable impacts on Boeing and the automotive sector, leading to a quiet reduction in some tariff rates by the White House [3] - China's export value surpassed 13 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 7.2% year-on-year growth, indicating the resilience of Chinese manufacturing [3] Group 2: Winners of the Tariff Strategy - U.S. domestic interest groups, particularly in the Great Lakes region's steel industry, Texas oil fields, and Iowa farms, have benefited from the tariff policies, contributing to Trump's electoral support [5] - The new strategy appears to focus on extracting concessions from allies rather than confronting China directly, showcasing a shift in approach [5][7] Group 3: European Trade Dynamics - Trump's imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on EU steel and aluminum, along with a 15% auto tariff, forced the EU to agree to significant investments in the U.S., totaling $600 billion [6] - The U.S. Customs revenue saw a dramatic increase, with a 273% rise in July 2025 to $28 billion, and an annual projection exceeding $300 billion, doubling from 2024 [6] Group 4: Strategic Shift in Negotiation Tactics - The Trump administration's approach has evolved to prioritize pragmatic negotiations, such as demanding Intel to give up 10% of its shares and requiring upfront payments from the Philippines for military cooperation [7] - This shift reflects a more calculated decision-making process, focusing on tangible financial outcomes rather than ideological confrontations, indicating a more business-like approach to international relations [7]