邓正红能源软实力：当前油价波动是“军事-能源-货币”三维软实力体系的再平衡

Core Insights - OPEC is expected to increase oil production again in November, which may exacerbate the anticipated supply surplus in the oil market [1] - The announcement of Trump's plan to end the Gaza conflict has put pressure on oil prices, leading to a decline in international oil prices [1] - The current oil price fluctuations are a result of a rebalancing of the "military-energy-currency" soft power system [2] Group 1: OPEC Production Strategy - OPEC plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which presents an internal contradiction in its strategy [3] - The increase in production is driven by market share competition, which may suppress the recovery of U.S. shale oil in the short term but risks creating a "high production, low price" cycle in the long term [3] - OPEC's strategy of increasing production has diluted the scarcity created by previous production cuts from 2020 to 2023, leading to a narrower price fluctuation range of $60 to $70 per barrel [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Trump's Gaza plan aims to reduce geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, potentially lowering Brent crude oil prices by $5 to $8 per barrel [3] - The geopolitical dynamics are shifting, with the U.S. attempting to exert influence over Middle Eastern affairs while simultaneously managing oil market conditions [3] - The global oil production is expected to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day, while demand is only expected to rise by 680,000 barrels per day, creating systemic oversupply pressure [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - In the short term (1-3 months), Brent crude oil prices may test the critical support level of $60 per barrel due to multiple pressures, including the potential for reduced geopolitical premiums and OPEC's production increase [4] - There is a warning about the "60-dollar trap," where falling prices below the fiscal balance line for major oil-producing countries could trigger a new price war [4] - The oil market's soft power transition is evolving from "resource power" to "rule power," necessitating a new influence system that encompasses finance, technology, and environmental considerations [4]