Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-30 03:56Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump regarding a 100% tariff on all brand/patent drugs starting in October has led to a strong performance in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly among Chinese innovative drug companies, which are not expected to be significantly impacted by this policy [1][1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Chinese pharmaceutical stocks have shown strong gains, with Heptares Therapeutics (02142) up 8.2% to HKD 15.71, Zai Lab (09688) up 6.83% to HKD 26.6, Innovent Biologics (09969) up 6.61% to HKD 18.87, and WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) up 5.37% to HKD 115.7 [1][1]. Group 2: Tariff Impact Analysis - Trump's tariff policy applies only to brand/patent drugs and excludes generic drugs, biosimilars, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [1][1]. - According to CMB International, the impact on China's innovative drug industry chain is limited, and there is no need for excessive concern [1][1]. - Most Chinese companies have either established production capacity in the U.S. or outsourced production to local Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMOs), which mitigates the immediate impact of the tariffs [1][1]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - The majority of Chinese innovative drugs exported are in the form of APIs or raw herbal extracts, which are not affected by the new tariff policy, while the proportion of finished drug exports remains low [1][1]. - The investment timeline for multinational corporations (MNCs) to build factories in the U.S. will take time, leading to limited direct impact on CXO orders in the short term [1][1]. Group 4: Future Catalysts - Upcoming catalysts include the ESMO conference scheduled for mid to late October and the results of the medical insurance negotiations along with the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog expected to be announced in October to November [1][1].