对AI的质疑，是“自欺欺人”？

Core Viewpoint - The article argues against the prevalent skepticism surrounding AI, labeling it as a misunderstanding of the exponential growth trend in technology, similar to the initial underestimation of the COVID-19 pandemic [2][6]. Group 1: AI Performance and Growth - AI models are showing exponential growth in their ability to perform complex tasks, with the latest models capable of handling over two hours of software engineering tasks [5][14]. - The METR study indicates that AI's success rate for completing long software tasks has doubled approximately every seven months, with the Sonnet 3.7 model achieving a 50% success rate for one-hour tasks [9][10]. - The GDPval assessment reveals that top AI models are nearing human performance levels across 44 professions, challenging the notion that AI is limited to software engineering [12][13]. Group 2: Future Predictions - By mid-2026, AI models are expected to autonomously work for an entire workday (8 hours), with at least one model achieving human expert performance in various industries by the end of that year [17][18]. - By the end of 2027, AI models are predicted to frequently surpass human experts in many tasks, indicating a significant shift in capabilities [18][19].