最后的疯狂？美股屡创新高之际，华尔街却日益担忧

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, but concerns are growing that the upward trend may be nearing its end by 2025, with signs of overheating and potential corrections emerging [2][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has increased by 13% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have risen by 9% and 17%, respectively [2]. - The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small companies, recently hit its first historical high since 2021, benefiting from lower borrowing costs [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with a cooling but stable job market and no significant inflation spikes from trade wars, which has alleviated fears of a recession triggered by tariffs [2][3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to 4.14%, down from levels seen in June, indicating easing pressure in the bond market [3]. Speculative Trends - There are concerns about a speculative wave similar to 2021, driven by retail investors, with stocks like Opendoor Technologies surging 413% this year [3]. - The revival of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) is notable, with over 90 SPACs raising approximately $20 billion this year, the highest since 2021 [3]. IPO Performance - Newly listed companies have seen an average first-day trading increase of about 34%, marking the best performance since 2000 [4]. Sector Concerns - The transportation sector, which includes rail and air freight companies, has shown lackluster performance, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average down 0.8%, indicating declining expectations for demand [5]. - Gold and silver futures are performing well, with silver up 61%, suggesting a strong interest in inflation hedges [5]. Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 companies are currently the most expensive on record based on various valuation metrics, raising concerns about overextended stock valuations [5]. - Investors are beginning to seek undervalued stocks, particularly in sectors with stable earnings and low price-to-earnings ratios, such as financials [5].