Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan retains sufficient space for potential interest rate hikes but does not explicitly indicate an action for October, with a growing number of committee members suggesting the necessity for future rate increases due to high inflation levels in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the September monetary policy meeting while announcing plans to reduce holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) acquired during years of large-scale stimulus [1]. - A committee member expressed that it may be time to consider another rate hike, but emphasized the need to assess more data before making a decision [1][3]. - The minutes reveal that while most committee members prefer to wait for more data, the proportion of those advocating for a rate hike is gradually increasing [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the release of the minutes, the probability of a rate hike at the October 30 meeting is estimated at around 70% according to overnight swap indices, although the yen slightly depreciated against the dollar, indicating that investors did not find clear signals for an imminent rate hike [2]. - A committee member suggested that raising rates in September could surprise market participants, indicating a desire for clear policy signals before any adjustments [2][3]. - The upcoming quarterly Tankan survey is expected to show improved confidence among large manufacturing firms, which could further elevate market expectations for a rate hike if confirmed [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - A committee member noted that concerns regarding U.S. tariff policies and overseas risks have eased in the current economic outlook assessment by the Bank of Japan [3]. - The member indicated that it may be time to return to a stance of raising policy rates based on the current economic conditions [4].
日本央行内部加息呼声渐涨 但10月非“锁定”之选
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-30 04:45