澳洲联储继续“踩刹车”，预告通胀可能开始强劲

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain its cash rate at 3.6%, indicating a cautious outlook on the economy and signaling that future policy actions will depend on economic data [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The RBA has held its cash rate steady at 3.6% after three rate cuts this year, citing signs of private demand recovery and persistent inflation in certain areas [1] - Traders have reduced bets on a rate cut in November to below 50%, reflecting a shift in expectations regarding future monetary policy [1] - Economic data has been described as "in line" or "stronger than" RBA's expectations, with indications of a cyclical recovery in the economy [2] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Recent inflation indicators have shown a second consecutive month of acceleration, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's 2%-3% inflation target [3] - The unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.2%, suggesting that the RBA's goal of full employment is on track [3] - The RBA has warned that inflation for the September quarter may exceed previous expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [4] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The Australian economic outlook is clouded by uncertainties stemming from U.S. protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions [4] - Concerns exist regarding the potential U.S. government shutdown and its implications for economic data releases, including employment reports [4] - New tariffs announced by the U.S. government could negatively impact both U.S. and global economic growth, as rising commodity prices may squeeze household budgets and corporate profit margins [4]