黄金飙涨、美元走弱、人民币走强！全球资本大迁徙，中国成避风港？

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing a significant shift, with gold prices soaring, the US dollar weakening, and the Chinese yuan strengthening, indicating a historical change in international capital flows towards China as a new "safe haven" [3]. Group 1: Gold Surge - International gold prices reached a historic high of $3,795 per ounce on September 23, 2025, with an annual increase of over 40%, while domestic gold prices exceeded 1,100 yuan per gram [3][4]. - The surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and inflation expectations, alongside geopolitical risks impacting global supply chains [4]. - Central banks globally purchased a net 166 tons of gold in Q2 2025, with China increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months [4]. Group 2: Weakening US Dollar - The US dollar index depreciated by 9.8% in 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, driven by structural economic issues [4][5]. - The US budget deficit reached $1.147 trillion in the first five months of fiscal 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 123%, leading to a consensus that US Treasury bonds may depreciate in the long term [4]. - Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs and Federal Reserve independence, has weakened the dollar's stability as a policy anchor [4][5]. Group 3: Strengthening Chinese Yuan - The Chinese yuan appreciated by 2.37% against the US dollar by September 30, 2025, with the offshore yuan exchange rate briefly surpassing 7.08 [6]. - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with significant growth in the equipment manufacturing sector and a 28% share of global exports in new energy vehicles [6]. - Financial reforms, including the optimization of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the reduction of foreign investment restrictions, have contributed to the yuan's strength [6]. Group 4: Global Capital Migration - International capital flows are showing new characteristics, with a significant shift of risk-averse funds towards China, attracting $219 billion in net foreign investment in the Chinese bond market [7]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to US policies has led to long-term investments in China, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles and AI chips [7]. - Investment firms are increasing their allocation to Chinese assets, particularly in high-tech sectors, reflecting a structural change in risk preferences [7]. Group 5: Challenges and Outlook - Despite the favorable conditions for capital inflow, there are concerns regarding potential corrections in high gold prices and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact market sentiment [8][9]. - Long-term competition from new trade barriers, such as the EU carbon tax and the US CHIPS Act, may challenge China's industrial advantages [9]. - To maintain its status as a "safe haven," China needs to deepen financial reforms and enhance its international monetary system through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and digital currency settlements [10].