Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-30 07:09Group 1 - The long-term potential of China's healthcare market remains optimistic, but the pharmaceutical sector has surged 64% this year due to licensing optimism, leading to a shift in market focus towards organic revenue/profit growth due to rising risks from potential U.S. executive orders and high valuations [1][2] - UBS downgraded the ratings of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) to "Neutral" based on weak fundamentals, while changing its industry preference from 3SBio (01530) to Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) due to its stable traditional business and innovative pipeline [1] - The report indicates that the forward P/E ratio of Chinese pharmaceutical stocks is above the five-year average, with increasing risks from U.S. executive orders shifting market focus back to organic growth [1] Group 2 - CSPC's core traditional product NBP, which accounts for 32% of its 2024 finished drug revenue, continues to lose market share, and its high dependence on unconfirmed business development revenue increases uncertainty [2] - Kelun Pharmaceutical faces weak demand and intense competition, which may result in the lowest revenue growth among peers by 2025 [2] - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for CSPC and Kelun from 2024 to 2034 is only half of the average 13% CAGR of 3SBio, Hansoh, and Innovent Biologics [1]