2025年新形势下新型储能发展趋势分析报告

Core Insights - The new energy storage industry in China is entering a critical development phase driven by policy adjustments, technological breakthroughs, and market changes, transitioning from a supporting role to a core component of the new power system [1][5] Policy Environment - The issuance of Document No. 136 in 2025 cancels the mandatory energy storage requirements for new energy, shifting the industry from administrative-driven to market-driven development [1] - Document No. 394 emphasizes achieving full coverage of the electricity spot market by the end of 2025, with provinces like Shanxi, Guangdong, and Shandong already in operation, enhancing the value of energy storage services [1][2] Market Dynamics - The industry is moving away from subsidy dependence towards a diversified cost management approach, with a focus on capacity leasing as the primary business model [2] - The "green electricity direct connection" policy enhances storage opportunities by requiring green energy projects to integrate storage for increased flexibility [2] Demand Analysis - In 2024, China's new energy storage equivalent utilization hours reached nearly 1,000 hours, with a cumulative charge and discharge volume exceeding 39 billion kilowatt-hours, playing a crucial role in renewable energy consumption [2][3] - During the peak summer period of 2024, the cumulative charge and discharge volume of new energy storage reached 11.8 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 45% of the total from January to August [2] Supply Side - The total production capacity of lithium-ion storage batteries in China reached approximately 620 GWh in 2024, with a total output of nearly 340 GWh, indicating a supply surplus that lays the foundation for large-scale development [3][4] - The industry is witnessing a diversification of technology routes, moving beyond single reliance on specific technologies to a multi-faceted innovation approach [3] Technological Innovations - The rise of hybrid storage models, such as "lithium-ion battery + flow battery," enhances industry efficiency by meeting various power regulation needs while balancing cost and performance [4] - The integration of artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies into energy storage operations is advancing towards smarter and more refined management [4] Future Outlook - The new energy storage industry is expected to continue evolving around "strategic support" and "diversified innovation," with an increasing share of renewable energy in the power system [5] - As of May 2025, renewable energy generation accounted for 23.6% of the national total, with provinces like Qinghai and Gansu exceeding 80%, positioning new energy storage as a core support for energy transition [5]