马云预言实现？若无意外，2026年房地产将发生重大改变

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about housing prices becoming as cheap as onions is increasingly becoming a reality, as housing prices in China have significantly declined since 2022, with some areas experiencing drops of over 60% [3][5]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - Since 2022, the domestic housing market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with an average price drop of over 30% compared to historical highs [3]. - In certain third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen to extremely low levels, with some properties available for just tens of thousands of yuan [3]. - The real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with increased regulatory measures anticipated [5]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The regulatory environment for real estate is expected to tighten further, with potential reductions in mortgage rates and increases in public housing loan limits to encourage home purchases [5]. - Tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, are also likely to be implemented to support the market [5]. Group 3: Price Differentiation - A clear differentiation in housing prices across regions is anticipated, with cities that have already seen significant price drops having limited further decline potential [7]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, which still have high price-to-income ratios, are expected to experience a correction, starting with suburban areas before affecting city centers [7]. Group 4: Shift from Off-Plan to Completed Properties - Due to recent financial issues faced by major real estate companies, there is a growing demand to eliminate off-plan sales, leading to a shift towards selling completed properties [9]. - This change allows buyers to inspect properties before purchase, enhancing consumer confidence in the market [9]. Group 5: Elimination of Shared Area Costs - An increasing number of cities are abolishing the shared area cost in property pricing, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area only, which is positively received by the public [10][11]. - The trend of eliminating shared area costs is expected to continue, reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [10].