华创证券：25H1香港地产市场初步止跌 短期房企仍聚焦于去库存

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to show initial signs of stabilization in the first half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and a favorable rental yield environment, despite ongoing high inventory levels and short-term focus on destocking by property developers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a pulse-like recovery due to policy easing, with mainland Chinese buyers accounting for 24% of new and second-hand transactions in 2024, although the residential price index is projected to decline by 7.1% in 2024 [2]. - As of August 2025, the private residential price index has only slightly decreased by 0.24% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a stabilization trend [2][5]. - The transaction volumes for new and second-hand homes in Hong Kong increased by 13.9% and 13.8% respectively from January to August 2025 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The recovery of the financial sector is crucial for the overall economic rebound in Hong Kong, with a 3.1% year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2025 and a 43% increase in new insurance premiums in Q1 2025 [3]. - The low interest rate environment, with mortgage rates dropping to around 2% in mid-2025, has made housing more attractive compared to rental yields, which are estimated to be between 1.8% and 2.7% [4][5]. Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - The implementation of the "Talent Scheme" has led to an influx of approximately 350,000 talents and their families into Hong Kong, boosting rental demand and resulting in a 6% increase in the private residential rental index in 2023 [4]. - The rental yield has increased due to falling property prices and rising rents, with smaller units (under 100 square meters) showing higher rental yields of 2.2% to 2.7% [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Sales Strategy - There is significant pressure to reduce inventory in the new housing market, with a potential supply of 101,000 units over the next three to four years and approximately 27,000 completed but unsold units [6]. - The strategy of "price for volume" is being adopted in the new housing market, with projects like SIERRASEA launching at prices below market expectations to stimulate sales [7]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Swire Properties (01972), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Kerry Properties (00683) as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [8].