果然财评|3867美元！“美式混沌”下，这波黄金牛市还没到头

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3867.093 per ounce, reflects global capital's response to the political and economic instability in the United States, driven by a budget standoff between the two major political parties [2][3]. Group 1: Political and Economic Factors - The immediate catalyst for the gold price increase is the intense standoff between the U.S. political parties regarding the expiration of the Affordable Care Act and the new budget proposal, leading to concerns over a potential government shutdown [2]. - Trump's abrupt cancellation of budget negotiation meetings has heightened market fears regarding the stability of political negotiations, contributing to a deeper anxiety about U.S. policy continuity [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by increasing risks in the job market, has weakened the dollar and reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, providing a solid support for gold prices [4]. - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar, with the share of dollar assets in global central bank reserves dropping from 72% in 2000 to 58% by 2025, has made gold a core choice for foreign exchange reserve diversification [4]. Group 3: Investment Demand and Market Trends - The demand for gold as an investment is becoming increasingly diversified, with significant inflows into gold ETFs from North America and Europe, as institutions view gold as an effective tool for portfolio diversification and risk hedging [5]. - Despite potential risks from the U.S. promoting stablecoin development, the overarching trends of political division and expectations of loose monetary policy in the U.S. suggest that gold's status as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" will continue to be highlighted [5]. - The current surge in gold prices is fundamentally a response from global capital to the "American chaos," indicating that the bull market for gold is far from over [5].