BBMarkets：劳工部拟数据断供，美联储或成盲飞

Core Points - The U.S. federal government is set to shut down if Congress does not pass a new fiscal year budget by midnight on Tuesday, October 1, leading to a halt in data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2] - The shutdown will impact key economic indicators, including the non-farm payroll report, initial jobless claims, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are crucial for assessing the labor market and inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [2][3] - Historical precedents indicate that government shutdowns can lead to significant market volatility and uncertainty, as seen during previous shutdowns when critical economic data was delayed [3][4] Impact on Financial Markets - The absence of key economic reports is expected to amplify volatility in interest rate futures, leading to speculative pricing in the asset markets [3] - The BLS is not the only affected department, but its data is vital for financial markets, and a prolonged shutdown could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates [3] - Wall Street strategists have raised the probability of a government shutdown to 70%, warning that if combined with debt ceiling disputes, October could see volatility comparable to the 2011 S&P downgrade [4]