断供潮之后是抛售潮？银行朋友透露：这3类房产白送都别要！

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, characterized by a surge in mortgage defaults and a corresponding increase in property listings, particularly in major cities [1][8] - The decline in property values is exacerbated by changing educational policies and demographic shifts, leading to a decrease in demand for certain types of properties [3][5] - Economic factors, including stagnant income growth and rising mortgage pressures, are contributing to a lack of buyer confidence, further complicating the market situation [8] Group 1: Mortgage Defaults and Property Listings - In September 2025, a bank in Hangzhou reported a 300% increase in mortgage defaults compared to the previous year, with 70% of the defaulted properties remaining unsold after three months [1] - The Beike Research Institute noted that in the first half of 2025, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale in 50 major cities exceeded 8.5 million, with 32% classified as "urgent sales" (price reductions over 15%), doubling from 2024 [1] Group 2: Property Types Facing Decline - "Old and dilapidated" properties are facing a dual threat, with prices for key school district homes dropping by 28% and non-school district "old and dilapidated" homes declining by 42% since their peak in 2021 [3] - Properties in suburban areas are experiencing a "death spiral," with a 12% population decline in areas like Tianjin Wuqing and a 35% increase in new housing supply, leading to a significant mismatch in demand and supply [5] Group 3: Economic and Policy Influences - The second quarter of 2025 saw a 4.7% year-on-year increase in China's GDP, but real disposable income growth slowed to 4.1%, indicating a growing gap between income growth and housing costs [8] - Despite policy measures to relax purchase restrictions and lower down payment ratios, the lack of buyer confidence remains a significant barrier to market recovery [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The average transaction cycle for second-hand homes extended to 120 days in the first half of 2025, doubling from 2024, indicating a market in stagnation [8] - The current market is characterized as a "buyer's market," where sellers may face significant price reductions if they rush to sell [9]