美国大豆堆积如山，中方一单未下，特朗普发现不妙，错过最佳时机

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing an unprecedented sales crisis, primarily due to the absence of orders from China, which has historically been a major buyer [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - China accounted for a significant portion of U.S. soybean exports, with 6.5 million tons of contracts signed at the same time last year, while this year the order volume is zero [3]. - The speed of market shift is alarming, with China importing 66 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in the first eight months of this year, representing 75% of Brazil's total exports [3]. - U.S. soybean exports have plummeted by over 60% year-on-year due to China's imposition of a 23% punitive tariff on U.S. soybeans, making U.S. prices nearly $100 per ton higher than South American soybeans [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Farmers - The cost of planting soybeans is $450 per acre, while market prices only cover $300, leading to significant financial strain on farmers [5]. - Brazilian port expansions and Argentina's cancellation of soybean export taxes are expected to further enhance price competitiveness against U.S. soybeans [5]. Group 3: Structural Weaknesses - The soybean market is highly seasonal, and missing the sales window forces farmers to sell at lower prices [7]. - China's shift towards diversified supply sources has reduced its dependency on U.S. soybeans from 85% to 80%, while U.S. soybean exports still rely 60% on China [9]. - The U.S. government is facing internal divisions regarding trade negotiations, with agricultural leaders advocating for urgent talks while trade representatives maintain a hardline stance [7]. Group 4: Political Ramifications - The upcoming midterm elections are causing concern among Republican lawmakers in agricultural states, as each unsold shipment of soybeans could translate to a loss of votes [9]. - The Trump administration's $12 billion agricultural subsidy is viewed as insufficient, covering only 30% of farmers' losses [7].