Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached their highest level since May of last year, driven by supply-side disruptions and improving manufacturing sentiment in China, although downstream demand remains subdued [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The night trading session for copper saw a high opening and a closing increase of 1.27%, with prices slightly retreating during the day [1] - The US dollar index is under pressure, contributing to a generally positive trend in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points in September, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, and risks of a US government shutdown have increased, further pressuring the US dollar [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The disruption at the Grasberg mine has been largely priced in, but copper prices have shifted to a higher trading range with strong support below [1] - Domestic refined copper social inventory has shown a significant increase due to high copper prices suppressing downstream demand and the end of pre-holiday stockpiling [1] - Despite being the traditional peak demand season, downstream performance in the copper market is weak, with low stocking sentiment among downstream enterprises due to high prices and short-term pricing periods [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Grasberg project's shutdown is expected to continue to lower the growth forecast for refined copper production in the coming years [1] - China's target for average growth in non-ferrous metal production has been adjusted down to 1.5% for the next two years, with expectations of continued production cuts in October [1] - The low social inventory levels suggest that copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend in the short term [1]
沪铜高位运行 关注后续需求表现【9月30日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-30 08:54