3 6 Ke·2025-09-30 10:13Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has officially initiated its IPO process by submitting its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to achieve the goal set by founder Ye Guofu to go public within three years [1][2] - The潮玩 market has been rapidly growing, with competitors like Pop Mart creating significant market presence, and TOP TOY's entry is expected to intensify the competition [1][2] Company Performance - TOP TOY has shown remarkable growth, with revenue jumping from 6.79 billion RMB in 2022 to 19.09 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [3] - The company transitioned from a loss in 2022 to profitability in 2023, with net profit projected to reach 2.94 billion RMB in 2024, and gross margin increasing from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024 [3][4] - The number of stores has expanded from 117 in 2022 to 293 in 2024, supported by Miniso's extensive retail network [3] Market Position and Challenges - Despite rapid growth, TOP TOY remains heavily reliant on Miniso, with 45.5% of its revenue coming from the Miniso ecosystem as of mid-2025, raising concerns about its independence post-IPO [4] - The潮玩 industry is increasingly competitive, with self-owned IP becoming a critical differentiator. TOP TOY's reliance on licensed IPs poses risks, as evidenced by its lower revenue from self-owned IP compared to competitors like Pop Mart [5][7][10] International Expansion - TOP TOY has begun to focus on international markets, aiming for overseas sales to exceed 50% within five years and planning to open 1,000 stores globally [9] - Initial success has been noted in Southeast Asia, with profitable openings in Thailand and Malaysia, but overall overseas revenue remains low compared to competitors [9][10] Industry Outlook - The潮玩 market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 825 billion RMB by 2025 and 2,133 billion RMB by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 20.9% [11] - The competition is shifting towards IP ecosystem development and global strategies, emphasizing the need for brands to cultivate their own successful IPs to thrive in the market [11]