印尼矿难搅动全球“赤金风暴”，铜价猛涨至高点徘徊

Core Viewpoint - The recent mudslide incident at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has triggered a significant surge in global copper prices, with forecasts indicating a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market due to supply disruptions [1][2][3]. Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, has announced a production halt due to a mudslide, leading to a forecasted reduction of 200,000 metric tons in 2025 and nearly 270,000 metric tons in 2026 [3]. - Other major copper mines have also faced disruptions, including the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the El Teniente mine in Chile, which have both revised their production forecasts downward due to geological events [2][3]. - The cumulative effect of these incidents is expected to reduce global copper supply by approximately 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, exacerbating an already tight supply situation [3]. Price Forecasts - Major financial institutions have raised their copper price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average LME copper price of $11,000 per metric ton for Q4, significantly higher than previous estimates [1][2]. - The copper market is anticipated to experience its largest deficit since 2004, driven by the recent supply disruptions [2]. - Citigroup has adjusted its Q4 copper price forecast from $10,000 to $10,500 per metric ton following the Grasberg incident [7]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to its critical role in electric vehicles, renewable energy projects, and data centers, with projections indicating a global refined copper demand of 27 million metric tons in 2024, increasing to 31 million metric tons by 2030 [7]. - The shift towards electric vehicles, which require significantly more copper than traditional vehicles, is expected to further boost demand [7]. Market Sentiment - The copper market is currently characterized by heightened speculation and volatility, with analysts suggesting that the recent price increases are not merely short-term fluctuations but indicative of a longer-term upward trend supported by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [8]. - The overall sentiment in the copper market remains bullish, with expectations of continued price increases amid ongoing supply challenges and a favorable demand outlook [8].