特朗普政府停摆再度升级，两党补助问题互不相让，美多重风险叠加

Core Viewpoint - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. is expected to be unprecedented, with more significant unpredictability and potential damage compared to previous shutdowns [1] Group 1: Historical Context - Since 1976, the U.S. federal government has experienced 21 shutdowns, with most employees receiving back pay afterward [3] - The longest shutdown lasted 35 days, affecting approximately 800,000 federal employees, with 40% on unpaid leave and 60% required to work without pay [3] Group 2: Legislative Framework - The Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019 ensures that all employees, regardless of their position, receive full back pay after a shutdown [5] - This act has not been previously challenged, providing a safety net for federal employees [5] Group 3: Current Developments - Trump's threat of "permanent layoffs" targets non-essential employees, leading to legal challenges regarding the compliance of the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) layoff directives [6][8] - Approximately 25,000 probationary employees are currently affected, with the legality of their potential layoffs becoming a focal point of litigation [8] Group 4: Operational Impact - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are essential services, but past shutdowns have shown significant operational disruptions, such as a 10% absentee rate among TSA agents during the 2019 shutdown [9] - If 44,000 TSA employees face unpaid work again, there is a risk of airport shutdowns across the U.S. [10] Group 5: Economic Consequences - The shutdown could delay critical economic reports, including the September employment report and mid-month inflation data, affecting data quality for several months [12][14] - The 2019 shutdown lowered GDP by 0.2%, resulting in a loss of $11 billion, and a similar impact is anticipated if the current shutdown persists [14] Group 6: Broader Implications - The Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised due to recent political tensions, raising concerns about potential administrative interference in monetary policy [15] - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, reliant on Federal Reserve funding, may face operational paralysis during the shutdown [17] - The ongoing political standoff has led to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by both S&P and Fitch, reflecting the severity of the situation [17]